Photo of J. Scott Armstrong

J. Scott Armstrong

Professor of Marketing

Research Interests: educational methods, forecasting methods, persuasion through advertising., research methods, scientific communication, social responsibility in management, strategic planning, survey research

Links: CV, Personal Website

Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the “Favorite Book – First 25 Years” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, structured analogies, and the "index method."

In addition to forecasting, Professor Armstrong has published papers on survey research, educational methods, applied statistics, social responsibility, strategic planning, and scientific peer review. Most recently, his research activities have involved political forecasting (he is a co-founder of PollyVote.com) and forecasting for conflicts and terrorism. Among his findings is that competitor-oriented objectives are harmful to profits; formal planning improves profitability; and stakeholder management reduces irresponsibility in management. He also developed the widely used “extrapolation-by-waves” method for estimating nonresponse bias in surveys.

In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Professor Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters. He serves or has served on Editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces and the International Journal of Forecasting , and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000. One of the most frequently cited marketing professors worldwide, his Google Scholar Citation rate is expected to be about 1,700 for 2011.

A member of the Wharton Marketing Faculty since 1968, Professor Armstrong received his PhD in Management from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his MS in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University, and his BS degree in Industrial Engineering and BA in Applied Science from Lehigh University. He has also taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.

His book, Persuasive Advertising was published by Palgrave Macmillan in 2010. It was a finalist for the American Marketing Association's "Best Book in Marketing" for 2011. It is supported by advertisingprinciples.com, which received MERLOT's 2004 award as the "Best “Internet Site in Business Education." The site was substantially revised this past year.

For more on his life as a forecaster, see the "Interview of J. Scott Armstrong for the International Journal of Forecasting, (2012)."

Please note: Papers listed under the Publications headings below are arranged by date. For a listing by area (e.g., papers on education, forecasting, marketing, scientific methods, applied statistics or strategic planning) please see Professor Armstrong's CV on this site or go to Scholarly Commons, and use the Browse by Author tab.