J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing
Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the “Favorite Book – First 25 Years” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies.
In addition to forecasting, Professor Armstrong has published papers on survey research, educational methods, applied statistics, social responsibility, strategic planning, and scientific peer review. Most recently, his research activities have involved political forecasting (he is a co-founder of PollyVote.com) and forecasting for conflicts and terrorism. Among his findings is that competitor-oriented objectives are harmful to profits; formal planning improves profitability; and stakeholder management reduces social irresponsibility. He also developed the widely used “extrapolation-by-waves” method for estimating nonresponse bias in surveys.
In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Professor Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. I n 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters. He serves or has served on Editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces and the International Journal of Forecasting , and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000. One of the most frequently cited marketing professors worldwide, his "first-author" citation rate currently averages over 200 per year.
A member of the Wharton Marketing Faculty since 1968, Professor Armstrong received his PhD in Management from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his MS in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University, and his BS degree in Industrial Engineering and BA in Applied Science from Lehigh University. He has also taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.
Currently, he is working on a book, Persuasive Advertising and on advertisingprinciples.com, which was given MERLOT's 2004 award as the "Best “Internet Site in Business Education."
Curriculum Vita and Annual Summaries of Activities
Curriculum Vitae
Annual Summary - 2005
Annual Summary - 2004
Annual Summary - 2003
Annual Summary - 2002
Annual Summary - 2001
Current Projects
Assessing academic research
Business School Rankings
How to Evaluate Faculty
Important Findings in Marketing
Response to Commentary on Important Findings in Marketing
Reaping Benefits from Management Research with Reply
Corporate governance
"Corporate Boards Should Represent a Broader Community of Interests"(Knowledge@Wharton)
"Social Irresponsibility in Management"
The Panalba Case (see related documents under Product Policy on my Educational Materials page)
"Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications of the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship"
Predicting decisions in conflict situations
Structured Analogies for Forecasting, paper by Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment (in response to paper by Kesten Green)
Discussion of game theory in Financial Times, March 2002
Role Playing
Forecasting in Conflicts (from Knowledge@Wharton)
Forecasting Principles
For information about all aspects of forecasting research, visit forecastingprincples.com. Professor Armstrong has edited a book, Principles of Forecasting, designed to summarize all useful knowledge about forecasting methods. The book, consisting of 30 papers by 40 authors, was published by Kluwer in 2001.
Advertising Principles (AdPrin): A resource for those teaching (or doing) advertising
I recently completed an overhaul of the AdPrin site, a resource for those teaching advertising (or for practitioners). My long-term objective (not there yet, of course) is to include all useful knowledge about advertising on this site. If you have suggestions for making the site more useful, please send them along; tell me about mistakes and about sins of omission. The site is http://www.advertisingprinciples.com
Forthcoming from Palgrave Macmillan. J. Scott Armstrong (2007), Persuasive Advertising. An evidence-based approach for developing advertisements. Draft copy available upon request.
Current Research Papers
J. Scott Armstrong, (2006) "How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings," forthcoming after revisions in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
J. Scott Armstrong (2006), "Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting "
J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes (2006), "Making Progress in Forecasting," forthcoming in the the International Journal of Forecasting
J. Scott Armstrong (2006), "Findings from Evidence-based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error" forthcoming in the the International Journal of Forecasting
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green, "Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share" forthcoming in International Journal of Business
Alfred G. Cuzàn, J. Scott Armstrong, and Randall J. Jones, "Combining Methods to Forecast the 2004 Presidential Election: The Pollyvote"
Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong, "Why We Don't Really Know What 'Statistical Significance' Means: A Major Educational Failure "
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong, "Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts"
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong "Structured Analogies in Forecasting"
Full-Text Books and Papers
Long-Range Forecasting, 2nd Ed., 1985
Applied Statistics
Education
Forecasting
Implementing Change
Marketing and Advertising
Scientific Method and Peer Review
Social Responsibility
Strategy and Planning
Awards
Scott Armstrong's "The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project" was recently named a July 2004 "New Hot Paper" on the ISI Essential Science Indicators web site. Every two months,ISI Essential Science Indicators lists a new crop of what it calls "hot papers in science." Hot papers are selected by virtue of being cited among the top one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) in a current bimonthly period. Papers are selected in each of 22 fields of science and must be published within the last two years.
SMA/JAI Press Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000. Scott Armstrong was a recipient of this award - along with Philip Kotler and Gerald Zaltman - in November, 2000 in Orlando. The slides of his lecture on this occasion are provided here (PDF) and on the Society for Marketing Advances (SMA) website.
One of the first six Honorary Fellows for "distinguished contributions to forecasting," International Institute of Forecasters, 1996.
The Silver Jubilee Lecturer for the 25th anniversary celebration of the College of Business at Massey University in New Zealand, October 1997. His talk was "Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science?" Marketing Bulletin, 9 (May 1998), 1-15.
Major Findings
Professor Armstrong's page of Major Findings provides a summary of findings in which he was involved. These pertain to:
Forecasting
Marketing
Scientific Methods and Peer Review
Social Responsibility in Management
Strategic Planning
Education
Applied Statistics
Educational Materials
Thanks to all of you who have written to me about permission for using the educational materials. I take this opportunity to offer permission for everyone to reproduce and use these materials. If you also provide a credit line, that would be appreciated. In addition, I look forward to hearing from any of you who might be so kind as to mention that you are using materials, to offer suggestions on how the materials might be improved. or to suggest new materials.
ELMAR Contributions
ELMAR is a monitored electronic mail network for marketing academics. Professor Armstrong's page of Contributions to ELMAR provides a selection. The archive of ELMAR at Columbia University provides replies to these contributions.
Mass Media Coverage
Recent Papers and Citations in Knowledge@Wharton
General
Forecasting Techniques
Role Playing
Social Responsibility and Business Ethics
Evaluation of Research
Teaching and Grading