This page provides a summary of findings in which I was involved (the multiple asterisks denote the more important findings).
**** | Developed “Rule-Based Forecasting (in collaboration with F. Collopy), an expert systems approach to improve the selection and combination of extrapolation forecasts (also see Principles of Forecasting) |
**** | Proposed and tested the casual forces for the selection and weighting of extrapolation methods. |
*** | Developed and tested simulated interaction as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations, with K. Green |
*** | Developed and tested structured analogies (with K. Green) as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations |
*** | Combining Forecasts reduces error by about 12% |
*** | Concluded that game theory has no value for forecasting (with K. Green) |
*** | Found that judgmental bootstrapping substantially improves accuracy relative to judgmental forecasts |
** | Proposed and evaluated the Relative Absolute Error (RAE) for comparing the accuracy of Extrapolationg methods across series. |
** | Proposed that trend factors in extrapolation models be damped (based on a literature review). |
** | Modified (damped) seasonal factors that use domain knowledge reduce forecast error by 6% |
* | Developed the Seer-Sucker Theory: high expertise in forecasting change has little relationship to forecast accuracy. |
* | Developed a procedure to conduct the “forecasting audit.” |
* | Obtained evidence that econometric methods provide more accurate long-range forecasts (see also Principles of Forecasting) |
* | Showed simple Extrapolationg methods to be as accurate as more complex methods in forecasting under a wide variety of conditions (see also Principles of Forecasting) |
* | Concluded that company earnings forecasts are more accurate than those by analysts which, in turn, are more accurate than extrapolations (based on meta-analysis). |
* | Concluded that the mean square error is inappropriate for comparing forecasting methods (see also Armstrong and Fildes). |
* | Prediction intervals for series where trends conflict with expectations are asymmetric in the logs |
**** | Market-share and competitor-oriented objectives are detrimental to profit (the myth of market share). |
*** | Extrapolation across waves can be used to correct for non-response bias in mail surveys. |
*** | Experts’ predictions of consumer behavior lack validity. |
*** | Use of the BCG portfolio matrix leads to less profitable decisions |
*** | Found strong relationship between monetary incentives and mail survey response. |
** | Identified the conditions under which multiplicative decomposition is useful for estimation |
** | Brief descriptions are sufficient for intentions-to-purchase studies in some conditions |
** | Found that texts on marketing principles contain few principles |
* | Practitioners do not use well-established principles on how to select employees |
* | Showed that business-reply postage is not cost-effective for mail surveys |
* | Marketing journals publish few replications and these are published after much delay. |
* | Extensions of marketing studies typically fail to reproduce the original findings. |
* | Conducted experiments showing that escalation bias does not generalize to marketing decisions. |
Scientific Methods and Peer Review
*** | Concluded that method of multiple hypotheses is underutilized in management science (also see on advocacy) |
*** | Obtained evidence of a bias against the publication of papers with controversial findings |
** | Found relationship between less intelligible writing and academic prestige. This is an extension of the famous Dr. Fox lecture. |
* | Identified conflicts between scientific advancement and the advancement of scientists |
* | Proposed and used the “survey of researchers” to assess reliability and validity of coding in meta-analyses |
* | Proposed and implemented a “Results-blind reviewing” procedure for reviewing journal articles with controversial findings (this reviews design without knowledge of results) |
Social Responsibility in Management
**** | The stakeholder role, in combination with social accounting, reduces the likelihood of socially irresponsible decisions in marketing |
**** | Formal planning improves organizational effectiveness (used in meta-analysis). (see also planning 1 and planning 2) |
*** | Provided support for the hypothesis that business school prestige rests upon research, not teaching |
*** | Teaching ratings of faculty are detrimental to learning skills |
** | Developed and assessed the use of time contracts as a way to increase learner responsibility |
* | Developed and assessed a method of “learning by objectives” |
* | Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in factor analysis. |
* | Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in regression analysis. |