This page provides a summary of findings in which I was involved (the multiple asterisks denote the more important findings).
| **** | Developed “Rule-based Forecasting” (in collaboration with F. Collopy), an expert systems approach to improve the selection and combination of extrapolation forecasts (also see Principles of Forecasting) |
| **** | Proposed and tested the casual forces for the selection and weighting of extrapolation methods. |
| *** | Developed and tested simulated interaction as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations, with K. Green |
| *** | Developed and tested structured analogies (with K. Green) as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations |
| *** | Combining forecasts reduces error by about 12% |
| *** | Concluded that game theory has no value for forecasting (with K. Green) |
| *** | Found that judgmental bootstrapping substantially improves accuracy relative to judgmental forecasts |
| ** | Proposed and evaluated the Relative Absolute Error (RAE) for comparing the accuracy of extrapolation methods across series. |
| ** | Proposed that trend factors in extrapolation models be damped (based on a literature review). |
| ** | Modified (damped) seasonal factors that use domain knowledge reduce forecast error by 6% |
| * | Developed the Seer-Sucker Theory: high expertise in forecasting change has little relationship to forecast accuracy. |
| * | Developed a procedure to conduct the “forecasting audit.” |
| * | Obtained evidence that econometric methods provide more accurate long-range forecasts (see also Principles of Forecasting) |
| * | Showed simple extrapolation methods to be as accurate as more complex methods in forecasting under a wide variety of conditions (see also Principles of Forecasting) |
| * | Concluded that company earnings forecasts are more accurate than those by analysts which, in turn, are more accurate than extrapolations (based on meta-analysis). |
| * | Concluded that the mean square error is inappropriate for comparing forecasting methods (see also Armstrong and Fildes). |
| * | Prediction intervals for series where trends conflict with expectations are asymmetric in the logs |
| **** | Market-share and competitor-oriented objectives are detrimental to profit (the myth of market share). |
| *** | Extrapolation across waves can be used to correct for non-response bias in mail surveys. |
| *** | Experts’ predictions of consumer behavior lack validity. |
| *** | Use of the BCG portfolio matrix leads to less profitable decisions |
| *** | Found strong relationship between monetary incentives and mail survey response. |
| ** | Identified the conditions under which multiplicative decomposition is useful for estimation |
| ** | Brief descriptions are sufficient for intentions-to-purchase studies in some conditions |
| ** | Found that texts on marketing principles contain few principles |
| * | Practitioners do not use well-established principles on how to select employees |
| * | Showed that business-reply postage is not cost-effective for mail surveys |
| * | Marketing journals publish few replications and these are published after much delay. |
| * | Extensions of marketing studies typically fail to reproduce the original findings. |
| * | Conducted experiments showing that escalation bias does not generalize to marketing decisions. |
Scientific Methods and Peer Review
| *** | Concluded that method of multiple hypotheses is underutilized in management science (also see on advocacy) |
| *** | Obtained evidence of a bias against the publication of papers with controversial findings |
| ** | Found relationship between less intelligible writing and academic prestige. This is an extension of the famous Dr. Fox lecture. |
| * | Identified conflicts between scientific advancement and the advancement of scientists |
| * | Proposed and used the “survey of researchers” to assess reliability and validity of coding in meta-analyses |
| * | Proposed and implemented a “Results-blind reviewing” procedure for reviewing journal articles with controversial findings (this reviews design without knowledge of results) |
Social Responsibility in Management
| **** | The stakeholder role, in combination with social accounting, reduces the likelihood of socially irresponsible decisions in marketing |
| **** | Formal planning improves organizational effectiveness (used in meta-analysis). (see also planning 1 and planning 2) |
| *** | Provided support for the hypothesis that business school prestige rests upon research, not teaching |
| *** | Teaching ratings of faculty are detrimental to learning skills |
| ** | Developed and assessed the use of time contracts as a way to increase learner responsibility |
| * | Developed and assessed a method of “learning by objectives” |
| * | Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in factor analysis. |
| * | Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in regression analysis. |