MAJOR FINDINGS

 

This page provides a summary of findings in which I was involved (the multiple asterisks denote the more important findings).

Forecasting

**** Developed “Rule-based Forecasting” (in collaboration with F. Collopy), an expert systems approach to improve the selection and combination of extrapolation forecasts (also see Principles of Forecasting)
**** Proposed and tested the casual forces for the selection and weighting of extrapolation methods.
*** Developed and tested simulated interaction as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations, with K. Green
*** Developed and tested structured analogies (with K. Green) as a way to more accurately predict outcomes in conflict situations and negotiations
*** Combining forecasts reduces error by about 12%
*** Concluded that game theory has no value for forecasting (with K. Green)
*** Found that judgmental bootstrapping substantially improves accuracy relative to judgmental forecasts
** Proposed and evaluated the Relative Absolute Error (RAE) for comparing the accuracy of extrapolation methods across series.
** Proposed that trend factors in extrapolation models be damped (based on a literature review).
** Modified (damped) seasonal factors that use domain knowledge reduce forecast error by 6%
* Developed the Seer-Sucker Theory: high expertise in forecasting change has little relationship to forecast accuracy.
* Developed a procedure to conduct the “forecasting audit.”
* Obtained evidence that econometric methods provide more accurate long-range forecasts (see also Principles of Forecasting)
* Showed simple extrapolation methods to be as accurate as more complex methods in forecasting under a wide variety of conditions (see also Principles of Forecasting)
* Concluded that company earnings forecasts are more accurate than those by analysts which, in turn, are more accurate than extrapolations (based on meta-analysis).
* Concluded that the mean square error is inappropriate for comparing forecasting methods (see also Armstrong and Fildes).
* Prediction intervals for series where trends conflict with expectations are asymmetric in the logs

Marketing

**** Market-share and competitor-oriented objectives are detrimental to profit (the myth of market share).
*** Extrapolation across waves can be used to correct for non-response bias in mail surveys.
*** Experts’ predictions of consumer behavior lack validity.
*** Use of the BCG portfolio matrix leads to less profitable decisions
*** Found strong relationship between monetary incentives and mail survey response.
** Identified the conditions under which multiplicative decomposition is useful for estimation
** Brief descriptions are sufficient for intentions-to-purchase studies in some conditions
** Found that texts on marketing principles contain few principles
* Practitioners do not use well-established principles on how to select employees
* Showed that business-reply postage is not cost-effective for mail surveys
* Marketing journals publish few replications and these are published after much delay.
* Extensions of marketing studies typically fail to reproduce the original findings.
* Conducted experiments showing that escalation bias does not generalize to marketing decisions.

Scientific Methods and Peer Review

*** Concluded that method of multiple hypotheses is underutilized in management science (also see on advocacy)
*** Obtained evidence of a bias against the publication of papers with controversial findings
** Found relationship between less intelligible writing and academic prestige. This is an extension of the famous Dr. Fox lecture.
* Identified conflicts between scientific advancement and the advancement of scientists
* Proposed and used the “survey of researchers” to assess reliability and validity of coding in meta-analyses
* Proposed and implemented a “Results-blind reviewing” procedure for reviewing journal articles with controversial findings (this reviews design without knowledge of results)

Social Responsibility in Management

**** The stakeholder role, in combination with social accounting, reduces the likelihood of socially irresponsible decisions in marketing

Strategic Planning

**** Formal planning improves organizational effectiveness (used in meta-analysis). (see also planning 1 and planning 2)

Education

*** Provided support for the hypothesis that business school prestige rests upon research, not teaching
*** Teaching ratings of faculty are detrimental to learning skills
** Developed and assessed the use of time contracts as a way to increase learner responsibility
* Developed and assessed a method of “learning by objectives”

Applied Statistics

* Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in factor analysis.
* Illustrated dangers with the failure to assess reliability in regression analysis.