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J. Scott Armstrong
Professor of Marketing

Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the “Favorite Book – First 25 Years” by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies.

In addition to forecasting, Professor Armstrong has published papers on survey research, educational methods, applied statistics, social responsibility, strategic planning, and scientific peer review. Most recently, his research activities have involved political forecasting (he is a co-founder of PollyVote.com) and forecasting for conflicts and terrorism. Among his findings is that competitor-oriented objectives are harmful to profits; formal planning improves profitability; and stakeholder management reduces social irresponsibility. He also developed the widely used “extrapolation-by-waves” method for estimating nonresponse bias in surveys.

In 1989, a University of Maryland study ranked Professor Armstrong among the top 15 marketing professors in the U.S. In 1996, he was selected as one of the first six Honorary Fellows by the International Institute of Forecasters. He serves or has served on Editorial positions for the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Business Research, Interfaces and the International Journal of Forecasting , and other journals. He was awarded the Society for Marketing Advances Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000. One of the most frequently cited marketing professors worldwide, his "first-author" citation rate currently averages over 200 per year.

A member of the Wharton Marketing Faculty since 1968, Professor Armstrong received his PhD in Management from Massachusetts Institute of Technology, his MS in Industrial Administration from Carnegie Mellon University, and his BS degree in Industrial Engineering and BA in Applied Science from Lehigh University. He has also taught in Thailand, Switzerland, Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Japan, and other countries.

Currently, he is working on a book, Persuasive Advertising and on advertisingprinciples.com, which was given MERLOT's 2004 award as the "Best “Internet Site in Business Education."

Please note: Papers listed under the Publications heading below are arranged by date. For a listing by area (e.g., papers on education, forecasting, marketing, scientific methods, applied statistics or strategic planning) please see Professor Armstrong's CV on this site or go to Scholarly Commons, and use the Browse by Author tab.

Current Research Papers

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, (2009), "Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates"

Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, (2009), "Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts"

Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, Randall J. Jones, Jr., J. Scott Armstrong, (2009), "Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote"

Heiner Evanschitzky, J. Scott Armstrong, (2009), "Replications of Forecasting Research", International Journal of Forecasting

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, (2009), "How to forecast for recessions and recoveries"

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Publications

J. Scott Armstrong, Sandeep Patnaik, (2009), "Using Quasi-experimental Data to Develop Principles for Persuasive Advertising"

Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, (2009), "Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues"

J. Scott Armstrong, (2009), "Demand Forecasting using Evidence-based Principles (with slides integrated)"

Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, A. G. Cuzán, R. J. Jones, Jr., (2009), "Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote", Foresight, 12, 41-42

Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Willie Soon, (2009), "Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision-Making", International Journal of Forecasting

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In The News

Discussion on Global Polar Bear Population, BBC (Radio), 03/16/2009

"55 of the Hottest, Smartest, Most Talked About College Professors" (See Newsworthy Professors), CollegeDegree.com, 07/07/2007

In Praise of Third Place, by James Surowiecki, The New Yorker, The Financial Page, 12/12/2006

"Review of my several articles and books" - Search under Author for Armstrong, http://manyworlds.com, 01/02/2006

Video of interview with CN8 Money Matters Today:, WMV file (31,421 KB), 11/01/2005

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Awards

SMA/JAI Press Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000, 2000

Silver Jubilee Lecturer for the 25th anniversary celebration of the College of Business at Massey University in New Zealand, 1998

Honorary Fellow for "Distinguished contributions in forecasting", 1996

Systems approach

Mass Media Coverage

This page contains links to many articles published since the late 1970's in various newspapers, magazines, and other media that have cited Professor Armstrong's research and findings.

Annual Summaries of Activities

Annual Summary - 2008
Annual Summary - 2007
Annual Summary - 2006
Annual Summary - 2005
Annual Summary - 2004
Annual Summary - 2003
Annual Summary - 2002
Annual Summary - 2001

Current Projects

Forthcoming from Palgrave Macmillan. J. Scott Armstrong (2009), Persuasive Advertising: An evidence-based approach for developing advertisements.

Evidence-based missives

This section contains evidence based essays on various topics, such as the value of focus groups, whether strategic planning works, or how to improve service satisfaction.

Educational Materials

Professor Armstrong's page of Educational Materials provides learning aids. These include skills for advertising, pricing, product policy, and consulting, along with lists of techniques that can be used in each area. In some cases, such as for the systems approach and scenarios, detailed descriptions are provided. Experiential cases are also provided.

Major Findings

Professor Armstrong's page of Major Findings provides a summary of findings in which he was involved. These pertain to:
Forecasting
Marketing
Scientific Methods and Peer Review
Social Responsibility in Management
Strategic Planning
Education
Applied Statistics

Advertising Principles (AdPrin): A resource for those teaching (or doing) advertising

I recently completed an overhaul of the AdPrin site, a resource for those teaching advertising (or for practitioners). My long-term objective (not there yet, of course) is to include all useful knowledge about advertising on this site. If you have suggestions for making the site more useful, please send them along; tell me about mistakes and about sins of omissions.

Forecasting Principles

For information about all aspects of forecasting research, visit forecastingprinciples.com. Professor Armstrong has edited a book, Principles of Forecasting, designed to summarize all useful knowledge about forecasting methods. The book, consisting of 30 papers by 40 authors, was published by Kluwer in 2001.

Knowledge@Wharton

The 'Myth of Market Share': Can Focusing Too Much on the Competition Harm Profitability? (01/24/2007)

How Credible Are Polls? Is There a Better Way to Predict Outcomes in Politics and Business (11/03/2004)

Corporate Boards Should Represent a Broader Community of Interests (09/11/2002)

Forecasting in Conflicts: How to Predict What Your Opponent Will Do (02/13/2002)

Ice Hockey, Homicide and the Principles of Forecasting (08/29/2001)

Role Playing as a Forecasting Tool (09/17/1999)

J. Scott Armstrong
700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia , PA 19104
Phone: (215) 898-5087
armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu

Wharton Page

Research Interests: Forecasting methods; strategic planning; survey research; research methods, scientific communication; educational methods; social responsibility in management; persuasion through advertising.

Current Projects:
Applying principles to political forecasting, assessing academic research, corporate governance, predicting decisions in conflict situations.

Last Modified September 18, 2009